3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,147 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,245/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$99
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$261
Net cashflow
$98/mo
Annual
$1,175/yr
Cap rate
7.08%
Cash-on-cash
2.80%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.0% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $124k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#385 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Steele Elementary School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #267 of 627 statewide, top 45%, 147 students, 71% FRL); Ashville High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 385 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $150k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Ashville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KWDXCT0DHA3QR4
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29