2453D Union Blvd Unit 2A

Islip, NY 11751

$227,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · Built 1970 · Townhouse · Active · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $633/mo
• Annual: $7,599/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $63,560

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $227k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $227k).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#59 in NY, #878 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #186 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Commack Road Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 397 students, 45% FRL); Islip Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 641 students, 37% FRL); Islip High School (math 88% / reading 93%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 892 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 20% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $227k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Islip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The satellite image shows significant damage to the roof, requiring replacement.
• Major: exterior siding — The satellite image shows poor condition of the exterior siding, requiring repair or replacement.
• Major: landscaping — The satellite image shows poorly maintained landscaping, requiring significant work to improve curb appeal.