2453D Union Blvd Unit 2A

Islip, NY 11751

$227,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $789/mo
• Annual: $9,472/yr
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.90%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $63,560

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $227k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $227k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#59 in NY, #878 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #186 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Commack Road Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 397 students, 45% FRL); Islip Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 641 students, 37% FRL); Islip High School (math 88% / reading 93%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 892 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 20% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $227k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Islip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.