133 ''a'' Cedar Place Pl

Ruidoso, NM 88345

$193,280C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,014
• Tax + insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,974/yr
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.04%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $54,118

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $193k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 596 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,321/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 156% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: exterior siding — visible wear and tear
• Moderate: interior walls — light paint with some discoloration
• Moderate: landscaping — simple landscaping with some overgrowth