4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,979 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,425/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,345
Tax + insurance
−$427
HOA
−$50
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$93/mo
Annual
$1,122/yr
Cap rate
6.73%
Cash-on-cash
1.56%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$71,817
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $233k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KXEAMH52M6TN3X
· Data 5 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29