2368 Hill St

Petersburg, VA 23803

$75,900A-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,022 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$398
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $617/mo
• Annual: $7,403/yr
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.83%
• DSCR: 2.55
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $21,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $76k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pleasants Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 540 students, 102% FRL); Vernon Johns Middle (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #330 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 921 students, 99% FRL); Petersburg High (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 1,080 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — visible damage and wear
• Major: kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major: flooring — damaged and worn
• Major: interior walls — paint peeling and exposed drywall
• Major: windows — broken panes