1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
840 sqft ·
Built 2020
· Townhouse
· Active
· 108 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,804/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,043
Tax + insurance
−$299
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$379
Net cashflow
$83/mo
Annual
$998/yr
Cap rate
7.14%
Cash-on-cash
3.02%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$55,692
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($998/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.3% below list).
It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $180k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 498 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Upper Elementary Scho (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #12 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,332 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1062 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KY9BJQ0KRB3JSN
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29