1501 Okelley Rd

Rockdale, TX 76567

$249,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,988/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rockdale Int (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 419 students, 76% FRL); Rockdale J H (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 316 students, 70% FRL); Rockdale H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 464 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?