1904 W 3rd St

Lawrence, KS 66044

$220,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,257 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-499/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-499/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#1 in KS, #237 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Lawrence (urban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #46 of 169 in KS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinckney Elem (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #273 of 684 statewide, top 45%, 212 students, 64% FRL); Lawrence West Middle School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #72 of 219 statewide, top 38%, 609 students, 43% FRL); Lawrence Free State High (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #45 of 327 statewide, top 14%, 1,777 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.