219 Deer Run Trl

Poplar Grove, IL 61065

$450,000D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,352 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$932
• Net cashflow: $620/mo
• Annual: $7,439/yr
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#598 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• North Boone CUSD 200 (rural): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #440 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.