54 Clayton Ave

Waynesboro, PA 17268

$265,000D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,551 sqft · Built 1917 · Other · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-537/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-537/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#280 in PA, #2,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Waynesboro Area SD (town): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #283 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waynesboro Area Shs (math 69% / reading 24%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 633 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $265k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Waynesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.