319 4th St

Chickasaw, AL 36611

$69,000A-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,267 sqft · Built 1918 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $817/mo
• Annual: $9,799/yr
• Cap rate: 20.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.72%
• DSCR: 3.26
• 1% rule: 2.35%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#237 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Chickasaw City Elementary School (math 7% / reading 30%, grade F, #480 of 627 statewide, top 77%, 550 students, 80% FRL); Chickasaw Middle School (math 6% / reading 36%, grade F, #188 of 257 statewide, top 74%, 284 students, 89% FRL); Chickasaw City High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #248 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 224 students, 91% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 7.1% in Chickasaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.