2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,046 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Condo
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,270/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,888
Tax + insurance
−$454
HOA
−$870
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$897
Net cashflow
$161/mo
Annual
$1,936/yr
Cap rate
7.05%
Cash-on-cash
2.71%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$100,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $360k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,270/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KZTM3N5VPJPRTY
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29