5230 Hidden Valley Ln

Cumming, GA 30028

$515,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,910 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-844/mo
• Annual: $-10,127/yr
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.02%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $313k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Silver City Elementary School (math 66% / reading 56%, grade B, #118 of 1,228 statewide, top 10%, 1,128 students, 16% FRL); North Forsyth Middle School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #80 of 470 statewide, top 17%, 1,191 students, 20% FRL); North Forsyth High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 2,065 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $390k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.