2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
800 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Manufactured
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,214/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$128
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$465
Net cashflow
$966/mo
Annual
$11,590/yr
Cap rate
15.57%
Cash-on-cash
33.11%
DSCR
2.47
1% rule
1.77%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#177 in WA, #4,581 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
Peninsula School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #21 of 291 in WA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 1.9% in Gig Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M0TG666QW0DH1P
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29