3300 State Highway 95 S

Shiner, TX 77984

$137,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,643/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $358/mo
• Annual: $4,298/yr
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $754 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#3 in TX, #307 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Moulton ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 1,141 in TX (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moulton H S (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 138 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Lavaca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lavaca County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.