1930 Caracara St

Gonzalez, FL 32533

$317,900F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,667
• Tax + insurance: −$530
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-362/mo
• Annual: $-4,348/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $89,012

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $318k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jim Allen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 677 students, 61% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.