4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,499 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Pending
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,081/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$458
HOA
−$88
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$437
Net cashflow
$-345/mo
Annual
$-4,135/yr
Cap rate
4.79%
Cash-on-cash
-5.37%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (18.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (24.3% below list).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $208k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mirror Lakes Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 1,228 students, 68% FRL); East Lee County High School (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,896 students, 61% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 641 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At $2,081/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1027% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M1M5B12D8AFNXZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29