18610 Anne Dr

Webster, TX 77058

$315,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 225 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$619
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-129/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-129/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#433 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 0.7% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,860/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.