172 Ocean Oval Cir

Ocean Pines, MD 21811

$148,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,998/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $41,692

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#172 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Showell Elementary (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #220 of 860 statewide, top 26%, 621 students, 37% FRL); Stephen Decatur Middle (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #53 of 225 statewide, top 24%, 697 students, 50% FRL); Stephen Decatur High (math 64% / reading 78%, grade B+, #37 of 222 statewide, top 17%, 1,431 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $102k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Ocean Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.