408 Old Orchard Ct

Danville, CA 94526

$779,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,922/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,085
• Tax + insurance: −$789
• HOA: −$628
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$824
• Net cashflow: $-2,404/mo
• Annual: $-28,842/yr
• Cap rate: 2.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.22%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $218,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $779k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (54.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (49.7% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($756k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $354k (54.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vista Grande Elementary (543 students, 3% FRL); Los Cerros Middle (500 students, 4% FRL); Monte Vista High (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #66 of 1,170 statewide, top 6%, 2,243 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?