1401 9th St

Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$85,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1999 · Land · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $296/mo
• Annual: $3,555/yr
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.94%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twombly Elementary School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #824 of 966 statewide, top 88%, 435 students, 70% FRL); Fort Lupton Middle School (math 11% / reading 12%, grade F, #240 of 270 statewide, top 89%, 446 students, 67% FRL); Fort Lupton High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 91%, 763 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 23 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $85k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.