18 Periwinkle

Bohemia, NY 11716

$179,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$1,259
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,197/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#838 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Connetquot Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #155 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Pearl Elementary School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 189 students, 0% FRL); Oakdale-Bohemia Middle School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade A-, #121 of 729 statewide, top 17%, 634 students, 22% FRL); Connetquot High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,757 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $125k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.5% in Bohemia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.