1431 Maple St

Florence, OR 97439

$299,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-246/mo
• Annual: $-2,951/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (36.6% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Siuslaw Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 520 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw Middle School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 128 statewide, top 80%, 270 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 459 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $299k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.