509 Middleview Dr

York, PA 17402

$29,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $826/mo
• Annual: $9,911/yr
• Cap rate: 42.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.91%
• DSCR: 6.69
• 1% rule: 4.65%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• Dallastown Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #102 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dallastown Area Ms (math 30% / reading 55%, grade D-, #216 of 512 statewide, top 43%, 1,027 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallastown Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $30k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 5.0% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.