302 S 3rd St

Lamar, CO 81052

$119,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Active · 565 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $521/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#21 in CO, #2,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar School District No. Re-2 (town): math 19% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #65 of 86 in CO (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Prowers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prowers County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lamar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.