30 Harlow Hill Rd

Mexico, ME 04257

$96,000A-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1907 · Other · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $601/mo
• Annual: $7,207/yr
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.81%
• DSCR: 2.19
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $26,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in ME, #3,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment D-.
• RSU 10 (rural): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #107 of 112 in ME (top 96%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Rumford Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #279 of 294 statewide, top 95%, 261 students, 72% FRL); Mountain Valley Middle School (math 69% / reading 78%, grade A, #79 of 85 statewide, top 95%, 354 students, 76% FRL); Mountain Valley High School (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A-, #99 of 108 statewide, top 95%, 388 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 329 units permitted in Oxford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oxford County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $96k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 7.0% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.