3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 2020
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,024/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$165
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$215
Net cashflow
$126/mo
Annual
$1,509/yr
Cap rate
7.82%
Cash-on-cash
5.45%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$27,692
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East Jones Elementary School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #113 of 375 statewide, top 31%, 772 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M48JJ66H4KPY02
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29