32136 Mount Vernon Rd

Gibraltar, MI 48173

$220,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-436/mo
• Annual: $-5,237/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.50%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (35.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#133 in MI, #3,254 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gibraltar School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #219 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parsons Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #484 of 1,397 statewide, top 38%, 379 students, 29% FRL); Shumate Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 795 students, 34% FRL); Oscar A Carlson High School (math 23% / reading 50%, grade F, #364 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,165 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.