286 Van Buren Ave #6

St. Paul, MN 55103

$79,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 661 sqft · Built 1926 · Condo · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$270
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $503/mo
• Annual: $6,039/yr
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.99%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 2.13%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Magnet/Rondo (math 53% / reading 68%, grade B-, #203 of 857 statewide, top 24%, 1,082 students, 44% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 45 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.