3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,348 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,289/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$388
HOA
−$12
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$481
Net cashflow
$-60/mo
Annual
$-724/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.92%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-724/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (3.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.3% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $229k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Piedmont (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 270 in OK (top 3%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Northwood Es (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #84 of 845 statewide, top 11%, 469 students, 0% FRL); Piedmont Hs (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #24 of 447 statewide, top 5%, 1,422 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: 494 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 260 units permitted in Canadian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canadian County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $212k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M4K80HD77A20BY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29