3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
858 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Townhouse
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,869/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$983
Tax + insurance
−$701
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$392
Net cashflow
$-207/mo
Annual
$-2,489/yr
Cap rate
7.91%
Cash-on-cash
5.78%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$52,500
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $188k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (19.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (0.3% below list).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#135 in PA, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D-.
Upper Merion Area SD (suburban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #71 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Bridgeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M4VNJX3FJPTVT6
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29