12403 Braxfield Ct #12

North Bethesda, MD 20852

$174,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,018/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$664
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-339/mo
• Annual: $-4,065/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (28.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#21 in MD, #744 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 498 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.8% in North Bethesda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.