1901 Madison Ave #301

New York, NY 10035

$399,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,743/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$1,832
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,206
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-628/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-628/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $363k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,743/mo this rent would consume 153% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 3992% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?