Highgate Plan

Fruit Cove, FL 32259

$450,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 430 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,417
• Tax + insurance: −$1,086
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-1,937/mo
• Annual: $-23,242/yr
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.74%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $182,463

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $451k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 430 days — a 12% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 768 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 430 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.