2805 Pontiac Dr

Tallahassee, FL 32301

$114,999B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,497/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$636
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-680/yr
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.78%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bond Elementary School (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 536 students, 84% FRL); Fairview Middle School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 747 students, 58% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 45% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $115k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.