None bd · None ba ·
4,170 sqft ·
Built 1990
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 32 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,723/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,326
Tax + insurance
−$1,375
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,042
Net cashflow
$1,980/mo
Annual
$23,757/yr
Cap rate
9.17%
Cash-on-cash
10.28%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$231,000
Investor read
This is a multifamily listed at $825k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $825k).
It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($800k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $800k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $170k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $9,723/mo this rent would consume 191% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.