3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,379 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,055/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$420
HOA
−$37
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$432
Net cashflow
$-191/mo
Annual
$-2,296/yr
Cap rate
5.41%
Cash-on-cash
-3.17%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (13.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (20.6% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $206k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in TX, #4,376 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Seven Hills El (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 48% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Rhome — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29