12467 Dorwood Rd

Taymouth, MI 48417

$205,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,689/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.