102 Oakwood Dr

Trinidad, TX 75163

$189,000A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,648/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $1,530/mo
• Annual: $18,357/yr
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.69%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,274 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malakoff El (math 58% / reading 54%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 457 students, 75% FRL); Malakoff Middle (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 72% FRL); Malakoff H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 378 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.7% in Trinidad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,648/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.