15217 Livingston Rd

Accokeek, MD 20607

$425,000F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-632/mo
• Annual: $-7,582/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (26.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#353 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Accokeek Academy (math 12% / reading 36%, grade F, #282 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 1,567 students, 46% FRL); Gwynn Park High (math 14% / reading 46%, grade F, #153 of 222 statewide, top 69%, 1,140 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Accokeek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.