3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,170 sqft ·
Built 2024
· Townhouse
· Active
· 664 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,405/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$483
HOA
−$261
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$505
Net cashflow
$-365/mo
Annual
$-4,383/yr
Cap rate
4.78%
Cash-on-cash
-5.40%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (18.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (17.1% below list).
It's been on market 664 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $237k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Zach Elementary School (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A+, #4 of 966 statewide, top 1%, 475 students, 7% FRL); Fossil Ridge High School (math 63% / reading 83%, grade B+, #16 of 381 statewide, top 4%, 2,053 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools average 8% FRL vs 24% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+25 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Poudre School District R-1 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 664 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M7ZRW989512JMM
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29