15 Dayton Rd

Redding Center, CT 06896

$1,399,000C+

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,486 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax + insurance: −$2,180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $6,284/mo
• Annual: $75,403/yr
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.25%
• DSCR: 1.86
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $391,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.40M).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.38M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 09 (rural): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #7 of 192 in CT (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Joel Barlow High School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #18 of 194 statewide, top 10%, 768 students, 12% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 82% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Regional School District 09 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.11M; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.