9 Penn Cmns

Yaphank, NY 11980

$430,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$514
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,037/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $415k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (6.5% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $402k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#781 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C E Walters School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 795 students, 49% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Yaphank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,021/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 503% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.