400 S Howard Ave

Lakeland, FL 33815

$237,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Built 1981 · Townhouse · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$483
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-450/mo
• Annual: $-5,402/yr
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.14%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $66,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $237k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (13.6% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Ne Roberts Elementary School (math 45% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 691 students, 54% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $237k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,049/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.