50 S 1500 W #7

Vernal, UT 84078

$16,999D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,530/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $1,091/mo
• Annual: $13,093/yr
• Cap rate: 83.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 275.07%
• DSCR: 13.24
• 1% rule: 9.00%
• Cash to close: $4,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $17k).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $117 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $510 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#60 in UT, #3,813 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, employment F.
• Uintah District (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 80 in UT (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ashley School (math 32% / reading 18%, grade F, #472 of 585 statewide, top 81%, 517 students, 58% FRL); Vernal Middle (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #88 of 138 statewide, top 66%, 849 students, 42% FRL); Uintah High (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #131 of 171 statewide, top 79%, 1,808 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 85 units permitted in Uintah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Uintah County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (55%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.