705 Weir

Karnes City, TX 78118

$120,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1936 · SingleFamily · Active · 465 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,018/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,090/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (15.1% below list).
• It's been on market 465 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Karnes City ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #665 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 465 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.