1185 Ridge Ave

Johnstown, PA 15901

$17,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 257 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $507/mo
• Annual: $6,080/yr
• Cap rate: 41.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.09%
• DSCR: 6.52
• 1% rule: 4.76%
• Cash to close: $4,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($833 rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 41.0% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?