1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
520 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Active
· 486 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,741/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$863
HOA
−$1,018
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$996
Net cashflow
$-228/mo
Annual
$-2,733/yr
Cap rate
6.89%
Cash-on-cash
2.13%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (10.1% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lake Park Elementary School (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 502 students, 39% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 616 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 4486% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $235k; list at $399k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M9ZSV34DR9JHWQ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29