185 Smith Rd

Mineral, VA 23117

$199,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $393/mo
• Annual: $4,711/yr
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary (math 59% / reading 72%, grade B+, #410 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 632 students, 84% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 38% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $199k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.