619 Ardmore Cir

Maryville, TN 37804

$293,333D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,538
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $250/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $82,133

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($250/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maryville (suburban): math 58% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 139 in TN (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Sevier Elementary (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #60 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 613 students, 0% FRL); Coulter Grove Intermediate School (math 60% / reading 56%, grade B, #9 of 333 statewide, top 2%, 881 students, 0% FRL); Maryville High School (math 15% / reading 60%, grade F, #32 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 1,242 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 26% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 937 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (57 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blount County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Maryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.